Epidemiologic transition
- Concept
With development, the main causes of death shift from infections to chronic diseases such as heart disease, cancer and diabetes.
What it is
The epidemiologic transition is the change in the disease and death profile of a population: infections and maternal, perinatal and nutritional causes fall, and noncommunicable diseases and, in many places, injuries rise. It goes hand in hand with the demographic transition. In Latin America it is incomplete: infections, chronic diseases and violence coexist (a double or triple burden).
Worked example
- A made-up department had 2,000 deaths in 1970: 800 from infections and maternal, perinatal and nutritional causes (40%).
- In 1970, also, 900 deaths were from noncommunicable diseases (45%) and 300 from injuries (15%).
- In 2020 there were 2,400 deaths: 8% from infections and related causes = 0.08 × 2,400 = 192 deaths.
- In 2020, 75% were noncommunicable = 1,800 deaths and 17% injuries = 408 (192 + 1,800 + 408 = 2,400).
- Change: deaths from infections fell from 800 to 192 (−76%); noncommunicable deaths doubled, from 900 to 1,800.
- Reading: the profile flipped; services must move from treating acute episodes to supporting chronic disease for years.
Profile before and after the transition
| Feature | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Leading causes | Infections, undernutrition, maternal and perinatal causes | Cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease |
| Age at death | Children and young adults | Older adults |
| Typical course | Acute | Chronic, with disability |
| Main response | Water, sanitation, vaccines, antibiotics | Prevention of risk factors, chronic care, rehabilitation |
Markers
- NCD
- Double burden
- Polarisation
- Burden of disease
In practice
- In Colombia, rising chronic diseases coexist with dengue, malaria and tuberculosis, which remain active.
- The double burden requires services that do outbreak surveillance and follow-up of chronic patients at the same time.
Common pitfalls
- Thinking infections disappear: they can return (measles, dengue) or resist antimicrobials.
- Comparing cause shares without looking at rates: a share also rises when other causes fall.
- Assuming the whole country is at the same stage.
Test yourself
Think of the answer, then tap the question to see it.
What does the epidemiologic transition describe?
The shift from a profile dominated by infections and maternal, perinatal and nutritional causes to one dominated by noncommunicable diseases.
What is the double burden of disease?
The coexistence, in the same population, of infections that are still common with a growing number of chronic noncommunicable diseases.
Why is the share of deaths from a cause not enough to say its risk rose?
Because the share also rises if other causes fall; you need to look at rates.
How is it linked to the demographic transition?
They go together: as infant mortality and births fall, the population ages and the chronic diseases of older age predominate.
Elsewhere in DurgiPedia
Connections
Educational content on epidemiological and statistical methods; the examples use made-up numbers to teach the calculation. Not a clinical or legal guide: current Colombian rules are in the official sources.
Sources: Noncommunicable diseases (World Health Organization, 2026); Noncommunicable Diseases (Pan American Health Organization, 2026); Global health estimates: Leading causes of DALYs (World Health Organization, 2026).
Spotted a mistake?We are always improving for the community. Tell us what is wrong and our team will review it.Report a mistake
Representative model, for educational purposes only.